Thursday, 30 April 2009
Wednesday, 29 April 2009
Dont rush to buy it just yet though as it is only available by special invitation, if you visit the site http://www.moodymares.info/ you will see that there is a queue in order to purchase and that the system is not yet for general sale
I have been lucky enough to secure a download link so if you do want to buy the system throughout the test then you will have to click here as it isnt available through the sales page
Unfortunatelu the system appears to be sold out at the moment
Since 2004, there has been 843 bets with 430 winners which equates to a 51% strike rate which is what the system claims to have
To a £100 level stake profits are equal to £18,819 so no doubt the use of a sensible staking plan could somewhat increase this already respectable figure
The longest winning run has been 10 whilst the longest losing run has also been 10 , funnily enough both occurances have happened on two occassions
This system is predominetly a flat system as betting only takes place between certain months, in certain races and on certain tracks as you would expect
Every year since 2004 the system has shown a profit, with April incidently being the worst month for betting and July in the height of the flat season to be the best
Its refreshing to find a backing system that actually works and based on history, 5 years worth to be exact this system gets a big thumbs up
You can buy the 50% favourites system here
Tuesday, 28 April 2009
a 4/6 winner today, making us £6.67
£10 level stakes are big enough bet for average people like us and at £38 month i dont know if this service quite cuts the mustard, the reason being that the winners are so low priced that we often dont get a decent return
Monday, 27 April 2009
The system is very simple to follow and suitable for those who do have to go to work as selections and betting can be completed in the morning or even the night before and takes but a few short minutes. The system focuses on backing multiple selections using a level 1 point stake per selection at certain races at just the one U.K all weather track using the Betfair exchanges at starting prices. The emphasis is on getting nice prices coupled to a half decent strike rate. A 50 point bank is recommended and we will be using £ 10 per point for the test. Results will be posted when a meeting comes up and will endeavour to run the test for at least 30 meetings as opposed to 30 consequtive days in order to give it a fair trial.
Also from next week we will be testing The Golden Key Method which is basically a low risk trading method using both Betfair and bookmakers. You will need to access the markets around mid morning when the bookmakers prices are available. Qualifiers can vary throughout the morning as the system relies on certain price matching criteria. Price shortening is the key to this test and selections must win in order to make a profit and anything upward of 100 points per month profit is claimed so this will be a very interesting one.
Sunday, 26 April 2009
I have back checked the results to 2004 and to £100 level stakes this system has made £23867 with the longest winning run being 10, this has occured twice while the longest losing run has been 8 which has also occured twice
Visit the sales page here
Friday, 24 April 2009
Thursday, 23 April 2009
My advice, keep the £100 a month in your pocket- if this was a reputable service my emails would have been answered, as always i am open to be proven wrong
Wednesday, 22 April 2009
Due to personal circumstances there will be a short gap in selections. I hope to continue with this workshop sometime next week.
We had 3 out of 4 yesterday Hendersyde won in a photo finish.
21:20 Kempton Tudor Prince
All Selections P/L
15% Liability Plan £149.33
£10 Level Stakes -£38.80
38/43 Strike Rate 88%
Selection with Betfair SP 10.0 and less
15% Liability Plan £322.05
£10 Level Stakes £110.70
23/26 Strike Rate 88%
Tuesday, 21 April 2009
Todays Lay selections 21th April
15:50 Kempton Hendersyde
17:10 Southwell Dazzling Begum
17:20 Kempton Munlochy Bay
18:50 Bath Blue Jack
Monday, 20 April 2009
Over the period there have been 2 selections both of them successful lay bets for us, it has been a frustrating time for the system with many bets just falling outside of the selection criteria however we all know how important discipline is at this game
14 selections over the past few days , 13 of them being from the original system. All of these selections have been successful so lets hope the good run continues throughout the flat season after the hard few months the system has had
As promised I have now analysed the last 9 days selections.
We have had 39 selections with 35 being successful giving a strike rate of just under 90%. With average odds (Betfair SP) of 9.04. Using 15% liability of a £1000 bank and compounding it after each win the profit is £227.17. But when using £10 level stakes the results are very disappointing with a loss of £104.80 all totals include the 5% Betfair commission. This led me to look further at the results because any system will always be based on level stakes. The cut-off odds were set at 20.0 which after reflection are too high, but this also why I decided on a % liability stake for these selections.
I looked at the results with an upper level of 10.0 and what a difference the average odds came down to 5.67. We had 22 out 24 selections winning. The % liability plan was an incredible £500.52 in profit and the level stakes are also in profit by £104.80 again all figures include the Betfair commission.
I will start again tomorrow with the selections but will monitor both cut-off points to see how it works out long term.
Sunday, 19 April 2009
I fully intended to do an update today, but I had unexpected family visitors today so I will try and do it tomorrow.
I want to do some analysis on the results so far as it seems that a good percentage of losing bets are high priced horses. So I may adjust the upper limit on the bets after doing the analysis. I will hold off on further selection until I have made the adjustment.
Back tomorrow with an update.
Friday, 17 April 2009
Today 4 more successful lays with 1 non runner.
Selections 18th April
14:05 Newbury Tastahil
14:30 Thirsk Quest for Success
14:40 Bangor Mars Rock
15:15 Bangor Just Smudge
16:25 Bangor Nirvana Swing
Full update on Sunday.
Thursday, 16 April 2009
We had a 100% success today, but one of the selections was out of our range so 2/2 on the day.
Selections 17th April
14:40 Newbury Sonny Red
16:15 Thirsk Equuleus Pictor
17:00 Cheltenham Super Forman
19:20 Cheltenham Stolen Moments
20:15 Kempton Sen'n'so Character
More selections on Saturday morning. A full update will be posted on Sunday. I Will be busy at work tomorrow and I am going to Wembley on Saturday for the FA Cup Semi Final.
Fol Hollow stopped our winning run of 16 consectutive winning lays. Yesterday we had 8 selections 3 of these were either non-runners or out of our odds range for laying. So we eneded up with 4 out of 5 winning selections.
The 15% staking plan is £260 in profit
The £10 level stakes is -£8.70
Selections 16th April
14:45 Cheltenham Project Gallery
16:30 Cheltenham Merchant's Friend
18:15 Wolverhampton Luscivious
Wednesday, 15 April 2009
2 more successes yesterday.
Selections 15th April
14:00 Beverley My Mate Mal
14:10 Cheltenham Mountaineer
15:00 Newmarket The Miniver Rose
15:10 Beverley Fol Hollow
15:20 Cheltenham The Polomoche
15:35 Newmarket Rose Diamond
19:50 Kempton Gold Again
21:20 Kempton Princeley Hero
Will post a full update later.
Tuesday, 14 April 2009
The worst day we have had so far and a whopping loss on the day of £217.14.
There were 9 lays and 3 of them won at betfair odds of 5.6, 10.5 and 14.5 ouch.
The bank is now at £830.84 and will take around 20 successful lays to get back to where we started, a tough task I think, but we will see what happens.
My initial thoughts with this system when I first read it, was that the rules were a little strange, and the laying odds too high, and so far I havent changed my mind, but we shall see if it can turn it around in the next 20 days.
Bank now £830.84 next stake is £8.30 (1% of the bank)
Lays 44 Losers 37 Winners 7
Monday, 13 April 2009
Today we has 2 non runners and 3 successful bets.
So far we have had 22 lays with 20 being sucessful a 90% strike rate.
P/L 15% liability of a £1000 bank and compounding it after every race is: £276.17
P/L level £10 stakes using a £1000 bank is: -£5.70
Selections 14th April
14:00 Market Rasen Paddy's Honour
14:30 Market Rasen Speed Up
Yesterday we had 4 winning bets with one out of odds range.
I have now decided to compare the 2 staking plans directly with a starting bank of £1000, which will show clearly how the separate plans work.
15% Liability Plan P/L +£173.08
Level Stakes Plan P/L -£34.20
14th April Selections
14:00 Redcar Another Socket
14:30 Plumpton King's Alchemist
14:45 Huntingdon Simplified
15:35 Chepstow Quattocento
16:45 Chepstow Twilight Eagle
When i tried to leave the web page, i was offered £10 per month off my subscription, a dirty sales trick this to tempt people who might be unsure, im not even going to bother testing this now, im moving it straight to the failed section
Any service worth the money would never have to use this type of marketing trick to obtain subscribers
I recently trialed the NH Super Trends system for a month and had very good results. Consequently, when I heard that the author had modified the system and seemingly improved its performance, it seemed worthwhile to give it another month's trial to see the difference. I carried out the testing in exactly the same way for four weeks in March. Unfortunately, things did not go well this time. The new filter didn't cut the selections down very much but it did disqualify a few which would have been bets previously. Unfortunately, due to the overall performance, I didn't see the benefits of the new method which the author had observed in his own testing. The result of the four weeks was that there was an overall loss of 7 points which could be set off against the previous month's return of almost 20pts profit, so although disappointing in the short term, this would have been absorbed by a long term user. The most upsetting aspect of the month, however, was the losing run of 17 bets, followed by another of 8, then one of 5, interspersed with three winners. This was where the loss of 7 pts was incurred, it wasn't fully recovered by the end of the trial. I don't think this system was alone in falling down in March; several other systems I was either using or observing, failed equally to hold on to previous performance, so I conclude that March was just one of those bad months. Considering that the system is still in profit over the two month period, this poor result might be considered as just a blip in its performance. However, the potential for long losing runs cannot be ignored and would have to be accepted and catered for in bank size in order to withstand them. I would personally find it hard to accept them. Sam has said that he will run a back-test on this and will be reporting in due course. For the moment I would rate it as a 'possible' with some misgivings about the LLR
Update by Sam:- I have back tested this system now to 2004 and from what i have checked this system is down at least 26K to £100 level stakes during this period, with a strike rate of 13.8% There has also been occassions of over 30 losers which certainly wouldnt be acceptable to most bettors and certainly not me, i will move this to the failed category now and it goes to show the importance of testing for extended periods
The NH Super Trend Spotter can be bought by clicking here
The original system has had 2 bets with one being successful meaning a loss over the period
The email service has had 3 selections with 2 of them being successful, again a bumpy ride for W2L something that is becoming increasingly common over recent times
Sunday, 12 April 2009
We had a Non Runner (Mr Gerrard) and one was out of range odds wise (Just for Men which was infact Pulled UP). The other three all duly lost winning for us.
Our starting bank of £67 is now at £72.51, 15% liability of bank
Our vitural £1000 bank with level stakes stands with a loss of £81.50, I will today work on a comparison today showing a the 15% liabilty staking starting with a £1000 bank so we can see a direct comparison between the 2 staking plans.
Selections 12th April
Mussleburgh 14:50 Silvanus
Towcester 15:10 Circus of Dreams
Towcester 16:10 Cash for Honours
Mussleburgh 16:20 Step This Way
Plumpton 16:30 Victree
Saturday, 11 April 2009
Back after a days rest on Good Friday. Thursday we had another losing bet with Dennis the Legend winning. Using the 15% liability plan we are still just in profit. The level stakes plan is now -£110.20. Be interesting to see how the different plans work out. Have a busy day today.
Selections 11th April
Carlisle 14:20 Mr Gerrard
Haydock 14:25 Singalongasveer
Kempton 15:10 Sohocahtoa
Carlisle 15:25 Just for Men
Newton Abbott 16:20 Tempting Paradise
Back tomorrow with the reuslts etc.
Thursday, 9 April 2009
Wednesday, 8 April 2009
100% success today.
Using the 15% liability plan we are now in profit £1.78 from a £67 starting bank.
Level stakes has a loss of £94.50
This goes to show how important a staking plan is for certain systems.
Selections 9th April
Wincanton 14:20 Dennis the Legend
Ludlow 14:30 Khun John
Ludlow 15:30 Creagh Bay
Folkestone 15:40 Fantasy Ride
Ludlow 17:00 Mad Jack Duncan
The system comes in an easy to understand 15 page pdf, all work can be done the night before and bets placed in around 10 minutes
The longest successful run for this system to date is 29, and between Mar and Dec last year profits were over £14900 using the staking plan specified
Full of promise so we will see how things pan out, they also offer a tipster service, when i get details of it i will include them here, to visit the website click here
Tuesday, 7 April 2009
Results 7th April:
Pontefract 14:40 This One's for Pat (Unplaced) BF SP 12.5
Fontwell 15:00 Ballyman (4th) BF SP 3.55
Pontefract 15:10 Unbreak My Heart (1st) BF SP 14.2
Pontefract 15:40 River Danube (Non Runner)
Well sod's law hits yet again as soon as you start publishing them it goes wrong. That winner stopped a winning run of 18.
Unbreak My Heart got up to win a photo finish I have looked at the stats again and there is nothing I would change just have to put it down as one of those things.
The Racing Post Comment was: Failed to add to his 2yo wins last year and was disappointing more often than not.
£100 bank P/L -£6.42
£1000 bank P/L -£123
Selections 8th April
Nottingham 14:30 Rievaulx World
Hereford 15:40 Breiz Dreams
Brighton 16:50 Make My Dream
Kempton 21:00 Upstairs
Further to the testing of various systems here on the blog we are also developing our own systems. We have been working on a lay system for a while which has a strike rate of around 93%. This system does lay quite high prices horses at times so the staking is very important. If playing to level stakes you will need a relatively large bank. For £10 level stakes I would suggest a £1000 bank, but don't worry I also have a staking plan for small banks.
I personally will set-up a bank of £67 to test the system an odd amount but it is what I have in one of my test accounts. I find this better than paper trading as it concentrates you more even though it is very small stakes. For staking I will use 15% liability of my bank and compounding it after each race and this is the staking system to use when starting with a small bank. These will be very small stakes most will be less than the minimum £2 required I will be using Grey Horse Bot to place the bets which gets round this problem. It also calculates the correct stake to use. I will also keep records with a virtual £1000 bank using £10 level stakes.
This is work in progress and I will be changing things as I go along. Its just a way of letting you know what we are trying to do and so you can follow its progress.
I will start posting the selections here each day for you to follow and see how the system develops.
Selections 7th April:
Pontefract 14:40 This One's for Pat
Fontwell 15:00 Ballyman
Pontefract 15:10 Unbreak My Heart
Pontefract 15:40 River Danube
Monday, 6 April 2009
Sunday, 5 April 2009
3 bets in total between both the original system and the email service, allll of them being successful
the official results are now in, and what i can say is that the past two months have been the hardest period for the system since i began testing it, with the flat season now getting into the swing of things it will be interesting to see how it preforms, ie the same as previous years
use the links at the right hand side to view the official results
I must admit that when Sam asked me to look at this system I felt it stood a good chance of success as it all seemed very logical, but unfortunately it didnt pan out that way.
The system is a laying system on the first goal scored in the match, but in order for there to be a lay, certain criteria needs to be met in the Betfair markets.
This is where the problems start for this system, as people will end up with different selections as they will look at the markets at different times.
I decided that for midweek games I would look at the markets at around 6pm to see if there were any lays, and at weekends 15 mins before the first game was due to kick off, otherwise you would spend far too long in front of the computer looking at the markets.
It is fairly simple to see if there is a bet, as there are only 3 things you need to check for each game.
The other problem is the price at which you are laying, as the norm is 11/2-6/1 its very rarely less than 11/2, and normally 6/1, this is for me too high.
With the lay price being 6/1 the system needs to acheive a strike rate of at least 87% to break even.
I do think that some months it will acheive that figure, but you only need a couple of games to go wrong on the day and you then need the next 12 to be right to get back your losses.
The system lost £114 over the 38 day test and the strike rate was 83%, it is now in the position of needing the next 12 matches to be correct in order to get the bank back to the original £1000.
I'm afraid this system isnt for me, and failed to perform well enough over the 38 days for me to recommend it.
Visit the website here
Another poor day for the system with 5 lays and only 3 of them being successful and a loss on the day of £69.50.
Banks now stands at £886.00
Bets 84 and 70 wins (83%)
I was going to continue until 100 bets but I have decided with Sam that there is no point and I will give my opinion on this system a little later.